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FXUS61 KOKX 080906 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 506 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE TRI- STATE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW WITH AUTUMN- LIKE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MOSTLY CLEAR...QUIET MORNING WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH CU/SC DEVELOPMENT INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS STARTING TO GET ITSELF MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT LIES BANKED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE ANS SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS RIBBON OF TEMP GRADIENT STRETCHES ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND (AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES). THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS INCREASE TUES MORNING...WHICH MAKES THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER IN THE DAY. ALL INDICATORS POINT TO A HEALTHY SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. EXCELLENT UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AIDED BY A 100KT JET CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN NY...PLACING THE CWA IN THE RR QUAD. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND PROVIDE 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS. SVR INDICES ARE IMPRESSIVE...WITH ~2000 J/KG CAPES AND SWEAT VALUES OF OVER 400! AT ISSUE IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION...AND IF A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS. DUE TO THE SOLID DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE WEATHER...BUT KEPT IT SHORT OF SEVERE WORDING FOR NOW. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE NOTED IN THE HWO. EXPECT SHARP CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MUCH COOLER DEWPOINTS ARRIVING ON A GUSTY NW WIND. LOWS TUES NIGHT SHOULD END UP 5-8 DEG COOLER IN URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS...AND 10 DEG INLAND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR WED- THURS UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GFS/NAM AGREE ON 5-6C H85 TEMPS MIXING OUT TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT ADDED A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S NORTH AND WEST SUBURBS...AND 50S URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS. A FEW DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST THURS NIGHT AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR NEEDS TO OVERCOME...OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOOKING WAVE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND ENDS UP BEING THE AVENUE ALONG WHICH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE TRAVELS ALONG OFF THE US EAST COAST...BUT THIS IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR. SKC UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN COULD SEE FEW-SCT CU...SHOULD END UP WITH SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS BY LATE EVENING (CONVECTIVE DEBRIS). GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVERNIGHT (WESTERLY BECOMING NW AT CITY TERMINALS WHO THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING) SEA BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BY AROUND MIDDAY AT KBDR...EARLY AFTERNOON AT KGON/KJFK/KISP...AND MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT KLGA/KEWR/KISP...WITH WINDS BECOMING SW ELSEWHERE. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING (SW AROUND 5 KT AT CITY TERMINALS). OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... VFR UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SUB VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN INTO FRIDAY WHEN SUB VFR POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. && .MARINE... SE SWELL FROM IKE CONTINUES TO WARRANT MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY...WILL REFLECT IN HWO AND COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT. WHETHER MODERATE RISK CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME (WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SWELL EVEN WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE). MAINLY DUE TO THE SWELL AM CONTINUING SCA FOR THE CENTRAL COASTAL OCEAN ZONE UNTIL 6 AM AND FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONE UNTIL NOON (EXTENDED SLIGHTLY AS WAVEWATCH HAS TENDENCY TO BE TOO QUICK IN DISSIPATING SWELL...THOUGH IS DOING BETTER CURRENTLY THAN IT DID OVER THE SUMMER). AFTER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE HEADLINE FREE IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES. GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS WITH THE COLD PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT ARE THEN LIKELY OVER ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS SUBSIDE BY MORNING...AND CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING THE AREA. DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAKE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...THOUGH MORE INDICATIONS ARE FOR SUB SCA CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE PRE GFS AND GFS BASED WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. && .HYDROLOGY... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES EXPECTED BASIN WIDE (HIGHEST AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE). LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BS NEAR TERM...BS SHORT TERM...BS LONG TERM...BS AVIATION...PFM MARINE...PFM HYDROLOGY...BS
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FXUS61 KOKX 080906
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
506 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE
TRI- STATE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW
WITH AUTUMN- LIKE WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR...QUIET MORNING WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH CU/SC
DEVELOPMENT INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS FRONT IS STARTING TO GET ITSELF MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT LIES BANKED UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE
ANS SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS RIBBON OF TEMP
GRADIENT STRETCHES ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND (AND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES). THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS INCREASE TUES MORNING...WHICH MAKES THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST
A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER IN THE DAY. ALL INDICATORS POINT TO A
HEALTHY SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT.
EXCELLENT UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AIDED BY A
100KT JET CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN
NY...PLACING THE CWA IN THE RR QUAD. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND PROVIDE 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
40-50 KTS. SVR INDICES ARE IMPRESSIVE...WITH ~2000 J/KG CAPES AND
SWEAT VALUES OF OVER 400! AT ISSUE IS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL
INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION...AND IF A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPS. DUE TO THE SOLID DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE...ADDED ENHANCED WORDING TO THE WEATHER...BUT KEPT IT SHORT
OF SEVERE WORDING FOR NOW. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AND
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE NOTED IN THE HWO.

EXPECT SHARP CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MUCH
COOLER DEWPOINTS ARRIVING ON A GUSTY NW WIND. LOWS TUES NIGHT
SHOULD END UP 5-8 DEG COOLER IN URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS...AND 10
DEG INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR WED-
THURS UNDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. GFS/NAM AGREE ON 5-6C H85
TEMPS MIXING OUT TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...BUT ADDED A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S
NORTH AND WEST SUBURBS...AND 50S URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS. A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THURSDAY.

THE HIGH SLIDES EAST THURS NIGHT AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR NEEDS TO OVERCOME...OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A POTENT LOOKING WAVE DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND ENDS UP BEING THE AVENUE ALONG WHICH
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE TRAVELS ALONG OFF THE US EAST
COAST...BUT THIS IS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. SKC UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN COULD SEE FEW-SCT
CU...SHOULD END UP WITH SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS BY LATE EVENING
(CONVECTIVE DEBRIS).

GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVERNIGHT (WESTERLY BECOMING NW
AT CITY TERMINALS WHO THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE
MORNING) SEA BREEZE SHOULD KICK IN BY AROUND MIDDAY AT
KBDR...EARLY AFTERNOON AT KGON/KJFK/KISP...AND MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AT KLGA/KEWR/KISP...WITH WINDS BECOMING SW ELSEWHERE. WINDS THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING (SW AROUND 5 KT AT
CITY TERMINALS).

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VFR UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN INTO FRIDAY WHEN SUB VFR POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SE SWELL FROM IKE CONTINUES TO WARRANT MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS 
FOR TODAY...WILL REFLECT IN HWO AND COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT. WHETHER 
MODERATE RISK CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME 
(WILL THERE BE ENOUGH SWELL EVEN WITH SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMING 
ONSHORE).

MAINLY DUE TO THE SWELL AM CONTINUING SCA FOR THE CENTRAL COASTAL 
OCEAN ZONE UNTIL 6 AM AND FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONE UNTIL 
NOON (EXTENDED SLIGHTLY AS WAVEWATCH HAS TENDENCY TO BE TOO QUICK IN 
DISSIPATING SWELL...THOUGH IS DOING BETTER CURRENTLY THAN IT DID 
OVER THE SUMMER).

AFTER THIS MORNING SHOULD BE HEADLINE FREE IN THE COASTAL WATERS 
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF 
FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BUILD SEAS TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES. GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS 
WITH THE COLD PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT ARE THEN LIKELY OVER ALL WATERS 
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL 
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS SUBSIDE BY MORNING...AND 
CONDITIONS REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE 
TRANSITING THE AREA.

DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAKE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY A 
LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...THOUGH MORE INDICATIONS ARE FOR SUB SCA 
CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN FOR SCA 
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE PRE GFS AND GFS BASED WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH
ABOUT 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES EXPECTED BASIN WIDE (HIGHEST AMOUNTS MORE
LIKELY FROM NYC NORTH AND WEST WHERE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE). LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY 
     FOR ANZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY 
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...PFM
MARINE...PFM
HYDROLOGY...BS