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ACUS01 KWNS 160048 SWODY1 SPC AC 160046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH S TX AREAS... ...RIO GRANDE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX... THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH INTO SOUTH TX. A WEAK MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN DEEP S TX TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE S TX HILL COUNTRY TO SOUTH OF DEL RIO. DIABATIC HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER THE RIO GRANDE TO AROUND 3500 J/KG OVER DEEP S TX. THIS AREA REMAINS WITHIN PLUME OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TX BORDER. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK...DIRECTIONAL AND BULK SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ...CNTRL GA THROUGH SC... WELL DEFINED MCV CONTINUES EWD THROUGH GA. THE 00Z ATLANTA RAOB SHOWS STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WITH VERY LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW ATTENDING THIS FEATURE. LOW TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRY AND DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO FROM E CNTRL GA INTO SC. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. ...TN AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WRN TN SWWD THROUGH NRN MS AND SERN AR. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ..DIAL.. 05/16/2008 |
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