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ACUS02 KWNS 151726
SWODY2
SPC AC 151725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NRN FL NWD INTO
SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
FRIDAY.  AS A HEAT RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE W CST...A DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.  NRN
PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE...WITH DISTURBANCES
TRANSLATING ALONG THE SRN RIM OF A HUDSON BAY VORTEX INTO THE
CNTRL/ERN STATES.  MEANWHILE...STRONG JET ENERGY DIGGING WELL INTO
NRN MEXICO WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW THAT WILL SETTLE SWD INTO WCNTRL
MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  IN THE LWR-LEVELS...A SFC LOW ATTENDANT
TO THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ACCELERATING SEWD OFF THE ERN
SEABOARD...AND SWD INTO NRN FL AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. 

...SERN STATES NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA...
A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCV WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTEGRITY AS IT
MOVES ENEWD INTO THE SERN STATES TONIGHT.  ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND A HIGHER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EJECTING NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF
THE ERN SEABOARD.  

FRI AFTN/EVE FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED AS THE SPREAD IN SHORT
TERM MODELS INCREASES.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS SWD INTO
NRN FL...THOUGH HIGHER LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER IN WAKE OF THE
MORNING DISTURBANCE.  GFS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF
60S DEW POINTS NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN
ADVANCE OF A NRN STREAM IMPULSE.  IF THIS OCCURS...AND SUFFICIENT
HEATING CAN MATERIALIZE...ENOUGH BUOYANCY WILL EXIST FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP FROM SERN VA SWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NC DURING THE AFTN. 
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR...BUT 50 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVING DMGG WIND
GUSTS/ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES. 

MEANWHILE...FARTHER S...REMNANT MORNING MCS ACTIVITY ALONG SRN EDGE
OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH MAY RE-KINDLE IN THE RICH MARITIME
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SERN GA OR NRN FL.  THIS REGION WILL
RESIDE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF 40-50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW...SO 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH PRIMARILY DMGG WIND
GUSTS.

..RACY.. 05/15/2008