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ACUS02 KWNS 121729
SWODY2
SPC AC 121728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH INITIAL DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SHOWING LARGE CLOSED LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EWD...WITH THE CENTROID OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE MID
SOUTH TO NC/VA BY 12Z SUNDAY.  SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE CLOSED LOW...
WITH ONE MOVING NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SEVERAL MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND SERN STATES.  MEANWHILE...THE SRN PORTION OF A SPLITTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN CA LATE DAY 1/EARLY SATURDAY WILL
EVOLVE INTO A COMPACT PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW ON DAY TRACKING SEWD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
A SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE NC COAST AT 12Z SATURDAY
WITH A SECOND LOW OVER WRN NC/SWRN VA.  THESE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS VA/MD AND
BEGIN TO FILL SATURDAY NIGHT.  MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...IF NOT
ALL...SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AS A RESULT...POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF REACHING SEVERE
CRITERIA REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AN
ESE TRAILING FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES NNEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS.  THEREAFTER...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN VA...COUPLED WITH COOLING
ALOFT...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. 

MEANWHILE...DESPITE LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER DAYTIME
SURFACE HEATING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY 
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...ERN NV TO FOUR CORNERS...
STRONG LIFT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING /-26 TO -30C 500 MB COLD CORE/ ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EVOLVING CLOSED LOW.  COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NV/SRN UT/NRN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...AN ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..PETERS.. 03/12/2010