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ACUS02 KWNS 151726 SWODY2 SPC AC 151725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NRN FL NWD INTO SERN VA... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A HEAT RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE W CST...A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE...WITH DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING ALONG THE SRN RIM OF A HUDSON BAY VORTEX INTO THE CNTRL/ERN STATES. MEANWHILE...STRONG JET ENERGY DIGGING WELL INTO NRN MEXICO WILL CLOSE OFF A LOW THAT WILL SETTLE SWD INTO WCNTRL MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THE LWR-LEVELS...A SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ACCELERATING SEWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...AND SWD INTO NRN FL AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. ...SERN STATES NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA... A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MCV WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO THE SERN STATES TONIGHT. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND A HIGHER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE ERN SEABOARD. FRI AFTN/EVE FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED AS THE SPREAD IN SHORT TERM MODELS INCREASES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS SWD INTO NRN FL...THOUGH HIGHER LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER IN WAKE OF THE MORNING DISTURBANCE. GFS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF 60S DEW POINTS NWD INTO TIDEWATER VA AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A NRN STREAM IMPULSE. IF THIS OCCURS...AND SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN MATERIALIZE...ENOUGH BUOYANCY WILL EXIST FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM SERN VA SWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NC DURING THE AFTN. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR...BUT 50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVING DMGG WIND GUSTS/ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES. MEANWHILE...FARTHER S...REMNANT MORNING MCS ACTIVITY ALONG SRN EDGE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH MAY RE-KINDLE IN THE RICH MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SERN GA OR NRN FL. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF 40-50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW...SO 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH PRIMARILY DMGG WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 05/15/2008 |
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