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ACUS11 KWNS 112255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112254 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-120000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX INTO CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 112254Z - 120000Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING
EWD THROUGH CNTRL TX IS RESULTING IN THE NWD RETURN OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE MID/UPPER TX COAST AND
SRN LA.  THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS OCCURRING BENEATH A PLUME OF RATHER
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /I.E. 7-7.5 C PER KM/.  WHEN COUPLED WITH
HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING ATTENDANT TO UPSTREAM
SYSTEM...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE EARLIER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT N OF UTS.  MORE RECENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS BEING OBSERVED OVER LIBERTY COUNTY TX...AND BASED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE...ADDITIONAL DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION AND
SUBSEQUENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 00Z NEWD TO
NEAR AND N OF A POE-ESF-HEZ LINE.

FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK INTO TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...STRONG MID TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ALONG
SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS WILL RESULT IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SETUP WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE/LONG-LIVED
UPDRAFTS THAT FORM.

..MEAD.. 03/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30649433 31619320 32299216 32539110 32069035 31199021
            30639122 30259284 30349389 30649433 

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