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FXUS66 KLOX 101732 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 930 AM PST WED MAR 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WINDY CONDITIONS... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND NORTHEAST FLOW FORMS. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL COAST. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON TAP. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT HINTED AT...ADDED ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY...AND LEFT THE REST IN PLAY. THERE IS A LULL IN THE WINDS RIGHT NOW AS A WEAK FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER VTU CO...PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT PRODUCED A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...AND EVEN SPIT OUT A BRIEF SHOWER NEAR PT MUGU...BUT SHOULD BE DONE FOR NOW. SHOWERS...MOSTLY OF THE SNOW VARIETY...WILL CONTINUE ON THE OTHER HAND INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES...AND A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SM RANGE TONIGHT FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WITH A FAVORABLE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING. ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHIFT IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NORTH FLOW TURNS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL QUICKLY SHUT OFF THE NORTH WIND FAVORED AREAS AND LIGHT UP THE NORTHEAST FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE NORTHEAST PUSH IS NOWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS TODAYS WINDS AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE NO NEED FOR ADVISORIES. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH 545DM THKNS OVERHEAD. AGAIN MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SPEAKING OF COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN NON BREEZY LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME INLAND VLY AND DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING FREEZING TEMPS. IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE BECAUSE ANY AMOUNT OF WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPS 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CALM LOCATIONS. THURSDAY WILL SEE A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. A 572DM RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A DRAMATIC LEAP IN TEMPS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD WITH THE GREATEST GAINS ACROSS THE LA AND VTA VLYS. FRIDAY IS NO LONGER LOOKING QUITE AS WARM AS FORECAST YDY. THE FRONT THAT WAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS NOW ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY NIGHT ARRIVAL. THIS MEAN THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FASTER ON FRIDAY AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE DAY BUT JUST NOT AS NICE AS WE HOPED AND PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... LIKE ALL FRONTS LATELY THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING ONE LOOKS TO FALL APART AS IT ROUNDS POINT CONCEPTION. RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND SOME NORTH SLOPE RAIN FOR THE LA. VTA MTNS. DID NOT BUMP POPS UP HIGHER THAN CHC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING ISSUES WHETHER THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SAT MORNING. THE FRONT IS FAST ENOUGH MOVING THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT BOTH PERIODS. ELSEWHERE IT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER SATURDAY WITH HGTS FALLING TO 565 DM AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. BOTH GFS AND EC FORECAST ANOTHER LONGER LASTING RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND MAYBE A FEW MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...10/1200Z. A GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT ANY CIGS TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. WITH THE NORTH FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS AND LIGHT TURBULENCE THIS MORNING AROUND THE AIRFIELD. KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT THE AIRFIELD ALONG WITH LLWS AND SOME TURBULENCE. ***NOTE*** THE ASOS EQUIPMENT AT KBUR...KVNY...KHHR...KCMA...AND KOXR HAS A SOFTWARE ERROR THAT MAY LEAD TO INCORRECT CLOUD HEIGHTS WHEN THERE ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT. OBSERVATIONS AT KBUR WILL BE QUALITY CONTROLLED 24 HOURS A DAY...OBSERVATIONS AT KVNY WILL BE QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 13Z-07Z...OBSERVATIONS AT KOXR WILL BE QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 15Z-05Z. TAFS FOR KVNY AND KOXR WILL NOT BE AMENDED FOR CIGS DURING THE TIME THE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT MONITORED AND THERE ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX). WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE AVIATION...THOMPSON SYNOPSIS...ASR/HOFFER WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES |
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