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FXUS66 KLOX 101732
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST WED MAR 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY. A STRONG SURFACE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WINDY CONDITIONS... 
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 
AREA ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND 
NORTHEAST FLOW FORMS. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY 
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY 
DAY ON TAP. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT HINTED AT...ADDED ANOTHER WIND 
ADVISORY FOR SRN SBA COUNTY...AND LEFT THE REST IN PLAY. THERE IS A 
LULL IN THE WINDS RIGHT NOW AS A WEAK FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER VTU 
CO...PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT PRODUCED A GOOD AMOUNT OF 
SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST...AND EVEN SPIT OUT A BRIEF SHOWER NEAR 
PT MUGU...BUT SHOULD BE DONE FOR NOW. SHOWERS...MOSTLY OF THE SNOW 
VARIETY...WILL CONTINUE ON THE OTHER HAND INTO THE EVENING OVER THE 
NORTHERN SLOPES...AND A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FRESH SNOW IS EXPECTED. 
THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 
SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR 
THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SM RANGE TONIGHT FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WITH 
A FAVORABLE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING. 

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

THERE WILL BE A QUICK SHIFT IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE NORTH FLOW 
TURNS NORTHEAST. THIS WILL QUICKLY SHUT OFF THE NORTH WIND FAVORED 
AREAS AND LIGHT UP THE NORTHEAST FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE NORTHEAST 
PUSH IS NOWHERE NEAR AS STRONG AS TODAYS WINDS AND THERE WILL LIKELY 
BE NO NEED FOR ADVISORIES.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH 545DM THKNS OVERHEAD. AGAIN 
MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SPEAKING OF COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY IN SOME 
LOCATIONS. WITH A VERY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT LOWS 
IN NON BREEZY LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME INLAND VLY 
AND DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING FREEZING TEMPS. IT WILL BE VERY 
DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE 
BECAUSE ANY AMOUNT OF WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPS 10 DEGREES WARMER 
THAN CALM LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY WILL SEE A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. A 572DM RIDGE 
QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL 
ALLOW FOR A DRAMATIC LEAP IN TEMPS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE 
BOARD WITH THE GREATEST GAINS ACROSS THE LA AND VTA VLYS.

FRIDAY IS NO LONGER LOOKING QUITE AS WARM AS FORECAST YDY. THE FRONT 
THAT WAS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS NOW ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY NIGHT 
ARRIVAL. THIS MEAN THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN FASTER ON FRIDAY 
AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE DAY BUT JUST NOT AS 
NICE AS WE HOPED AND PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
LIKE ALL FRONTS LATELY THE FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY MORNING ONE LOOKS 
TO FALL APART AS IT ROUNDS POINT CONCEPTION. RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH 
A CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND SOME NORTH SLOPE 
RAIN FOR THE LA. VTA MTNS. DID NOT BUMP POPS UP HIGHER THAN CHC TO 
ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING ISSUES WHETHER THE RAIN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY 
NIGHT OR SAT MORNING. THE FRONT IS FAST ENOUGH MOVING THAT RAIN WILL 
LIKELY NOT AFFECT BOTH PERIODS. ELSEWHERE IT WILL MAKE FOR COOLER 
SATURDAY WITH HGTS FALLING TO 565 DM AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPS 
WILL FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BOTH GFS AND EC FORECAST ANOTHER LONGER LASTING RIDGE TO BUILD INTO 
THE AREA SUNDAY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
AND TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND MAYBE A FEW MORE 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1200Z.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA 
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME 
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT 
ANY CIGS TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...SOME 
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED 
ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. 

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. WITH THE NORTH
FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME LLWS AND LIGHT TURBULENCE THIS MORNING 
AROUND THE AIRFIELD.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT THE AIRFIELD ALONG WITH LLWS AND SOME
TURBULENCE. 

***NOTE***
THE ASOS EQUIPMENT AT KBUR...KVNY...KHHR...KCMA...AND KOXR HAS A 
SOFTWARE ERROR THAT MAY LEAD TO INCORRECT CLOUD HEIGHTS WHEN THERE 
ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT. OBSERVATIONS AT KBUR WILL BE 
QUALITY CONTROLLED 24 HOURS A DAY...OBSERVATIONS AT KVNY WILL BE 
QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 13Z-07Z...OBSERVATIONS AT KOXR WILL BE 
QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 15Z-05Z. TAFS FOR KVNY AND KOXR WILL NOT BE 
AMENDED FOR CIGS DURING THE TIME THE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT MONITORED 
AND THERE ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL/RORKE
AVIATION...THOMPSON
SYNOPSIS...ASR/HOFFER

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