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AXNT20 KNHC 111138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 3N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING N OVER NW MISSOURI EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC AND CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE COMBINING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER NE MISSISSIPPI/ NW ALABAMA AND MOVING FROM THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 28N E OF 90W TO OVER SE US. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST N OF GUADELOUPE WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUING W TO 17N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA S OF 17N FROM 70W-80W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER BERMUDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE WEAK UPPER FLOW EXTEND OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM CUBA TO BEYOND 32N W OF 75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND INTO CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 40W-70W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS THROUGH 32N13N OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 28N17W 27N28W 29N37W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N39W ALONG 20N50W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST N OF GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT FROM 31W TO THE LOW AND WITHIN 250 NM NW OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE LOW AND 60W. AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXETNDS FROM TROPICS NEAR 7N40W TO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE |
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