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FNUS21 KWNS 101600 FWDDY1 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010 VALID 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN WY...N CNTRL CO AND SWRN NEB PANHANDLE... NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE CRITICAL AREA AS OF 16Z...AND GIVEN STRONG UPPER FORCING...THIS MAY INFLUENCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD...AS NOTED RECENTLY AT RAWLINS WY. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALIZED. ..HURLBUT.. 09/10/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0337 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES PER 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NEWD INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODERATE DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF FROM SRN WY TO E CNTRL NM...AS WELL FROM S CNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND DRYLINE. ...FAR SERN WY...N CNTRL CO AND SWRN NEB PANHANDLE... THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE ROBUST MODEL SOLUTION WITH A 700 MB WIND MAX OF 35-40 KT ACROSS SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AT 15Z. WHILE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVER-DONE...20-30 KT FLOW DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING DATA AND CURRENT RADAR AND PROFILER DATA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PROMOTE DRYING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FOOTHILLS IN N CNTRL CO WHERE ONGOING FIRES WILL BE AFFECTED. EXPECT WLY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROF SHIFTS EWD...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WHILE WINDS DECREASE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...E CNTRL NM INTO FAR W TX... FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 25-30 KT OF WLY 700 MB FLOW FROM E CNTRL NM INTO FAR W TX. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. RESULTING RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT. WLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WHILE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SOME AREAS MAY SEE LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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FNUS21 KWNS 101600
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010

VALID 101700Z - 111200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN WY...N CNTRL CO AND SWRN
NEB PANHANDLE...

NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE
CRITICAL AREA AS OF 16Z...AND GIVEN STRONG UPPER FORCING...THIS MAY
INFLUENCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EWD...AS NOTED RECENTLY AT RAWLINS WY. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALIZED.

..HURLBUT.. 09/10/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0337 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES PER
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NEWD INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODERATE DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF FROM SRN WY TO E CNTRL
NM...AS WELL FROM S CNTRL KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR DEVELOPING
SFC LOW AND DRYLINE. 

...FAR SERN WY...N CNTRL CO AND SWRN NEB PANHANDLE...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE ROBUST MODEL SOLUTION WITH A 700 MB
WIND MAX OF 35-40 KT ACROSS SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AT 15Z.
WHILE THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVER-DONE...20-30 KT FLOW DOES NOT SEEM
OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING DATA AND
CURRENT RADAR AND PROFILER DATA. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND PROMOTE DRYING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY MTN
FOOTHILLS IN N CNTRL CO WHERE ONGOING FIRES WILL BE AFFECTED. EXPECT
WLY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 30 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROF SHIFTS EWD...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND WHILE WINDS DECREASE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...E CNTRL NM INTO FAR W TX...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 25-30 KT OF WLY 700 MB FLOW FROM E
CNTRL NM INTO FAR W TX. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S.
RESULTING RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT. WLY SFC WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WHILE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...SOME AREAS MAY SEE LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...